predicting the next president and making money in the private markets

What's the buzz about the classifieds prediction markets for the 2024 election? See how you can predict the next president and earn money for your information.

Have you ever wondered if you can predict the outcome of an event and profit from your foresight? Fixed-term prediction markets make that a reality. Recently, these markets have seen significant growth, especially as the 2024 US presidential election approaches.

Polymarket, the leading crypto-based prediction market platform, has experienced an impressive increase in activity. According to Dune Analytics, the volume of Polymarket exceeded $ 100 million in June alone, which marks a record month in the year of the release of the platform.

The operation continued through July, with bets worth $9.3 million placed on the first day alone. This one-day volume exceeded the typical monthly volumes seen on Polymarket last year, which ranged between $3 million and $8 million.

From January to May 2024, Polymarket's monthly volumes were between $40 and $60 million, marking a 7- to 12-fold increase compared to the monthly volumes of the previous year. In June, 111 million dollars were bet, which is the highest amount ever on the platform.

One of Polymarket's most popular contests is the “Winner of the 2024 Presidential Election,” which has attracted more than $208 million worth of bets since its inception. Currently, the odds favor Donald Trump at 66% and Joe Biden at 21%.

Analysts at the research and marketing firm Bernstein note that blockchain-based platforms such as Polymarket increase the efficiency of election markets by providing transparency and liquidity. They said this in a recent letter to clients, highlighting how Polymarket, built on blockchain technology, is increasing public awareness of the role of crypto in politics.

With so much interest in these platforms, let's dive deeper into how they work, check out some notable bets, identify the best platforms, and find out how you can participate and earn without betting.

What are the established prediction markets and how do they work?

Standardized prediction markets are betting platforms that allow people to bet on the outcomes of real events using blockchain technology.

These marketplaces operate on decentralized networks, which means there is no central authority controlling transactions. Instead, they use smart contracts—automated contracts with the terms of the agreement written directly into the code. This ensures that all transactions are transparent, secure, and proof-free.

One of the most popular decentralized prediction markets is Polymarket. Polymarket works on the Ethereum (ETH) Layer 2 (L2) network, Polygon (MATIC), and allows users to speculate on various events, such as political results, entertainment, and sports, using the stablecoin USDC. This integration ensures liquidity and commercial stability.

Polymarket uses a market maker (AMM) pool model similar to Uniswap (UNI). Liquidity providers provide on-chain market capital, and users trade these token shares to bet.

For example, if you believe that a certain candidate will win the election, you can buy “Yes” stocks at a price that reflects current market opportunities. If the event happens as you predicted, you get a profit. If not, you lose. This program allows you to benefit from your knowledge and predictions about various events.

Polymarket is not the only player in the decentralized forecasting market space. Platforms like Augur and Hedgehog also offer similar services, allowing users to predict various events.

For example, Augur runs on the Ethereum blockchain and uses a native token (REP) for betting. Hedgehog is another emerging platform, which uses the same principles of decentralized betting with a focus on user-friendly communication and diversified market offerings.

A popular bet on polymarket

The uproar over the 2024 US presidential election has resulted in a flurry of jobs at Polymarket. Let's dive into some of the most popular betting games and what they reveal about public sentiment.

Biden's debate performance

The first presidential debate of June 27, 2024, marked a significant change in betting patterns in Polymarket. Joe Biden's performance, which has been widely criticized as one of the weakest since the televised debate season began, prompted a surge in betting.

Before the debate, Biden had a 91% chance of the Democratic nomination. However, following his performance, this dropped to 71%, with more bets of $21.2 million on Biden and $5.06 million on Kamala Harris, who has received 11% support so far.

At the same time, the probability that Biden will drop out of the race has increased significantly from 19% before the debate to 44% on July 1. Although he has improved slightly to 35%, the volatility reflects the uncertainty surrounding his campaign.

On the Republican side, the betting sentiment is overwhelmingly in Trump's favor. With more than $6.6 million in bets, Trump is predicted to have a 99% chance of becoming the Republican nominee, a stark contrast to the volatile confidence of the Biden campaign.

Swing says predictions

Swing states are important in determining the outcome of an election, and Polymarket's predictive polls show Republican sweeps in key states.

For example, Republicans are predicted to win Nevada (71%), Michigan (53%), Pennsylvania (58%), Arizona (73%), Wisconsin (56%), Georgia (80%), and North Carolina (83%). ).

With more than $3 million in total betting backing these predictions, the Republican Party emerged as the clear winner in all of these battleground states.

There is also a remarkable prediction about international affairs: there is a 56% chance that Israel will attack Lebanon before September, adding fuel to the already complicated situation around the world.

How do you make money on different betting markets?

Fixed-term prediction markets offer opportunities to make money, but they also come with very high risks. Here's how you can benefit from these areas, along with some valuable advice.

Being a financial provider

One of the easiest ways to make money on platforms like Polymarket is to become a money provider. Here's how it works:

• Deposit USDC: You can deposit USDC into the platform's liquidity pool.
• Receive payments: By offering money, you earn part of the trading costs whenever users bet.
• Automated market maker (AMM): The platform uses the AMM model, ensuring that your funds are used for trading and betting successfully.

This method provides constant income without betting on events, making it a low-risk option compared to direct betting.

Direct betting

Another way to make money is by placing fixed bets based on the probability of certain events. For example:

• Select an event: Select the event you want to bet on, such as the outcome of the presidential election.
• Analyze the possibilities: Consider current issues and make your prediction.
• Place your bet: Bet the amount you are comfortable with, knowing that if your prediction is correct, you can get a significant return.

Besides Polymarket, many other platforms offer decentralized prediction markets. These platforms work in the same way, allowing you to give money or place direct bets on various events.

Although these opportunities can be very profitable, they also come with significant risks. If the odds don't wake you up, you can experience huge losses.

It is important to trade with caution and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Always do your due diligence and consider seeking the advice of a financial professional before taking the plunge.